Parliament’s summer break is set to kick off by June 20 at the latest, and if the Liberals are still in charge by then, we can expect an election to take place as planned at the end of October. In a surprising turn of events, Justin Trudeau has revealed that he will be stepping down as Prime Minister of Canada and as leader of the Liberal Party in the next few months.
This decision comes in response to a frustrated electorate and ongoing political conflicts, along with some shaky economic forecasts.
Trudeau mentioned that he’ll remain in both roles until a new leader is selected for the party to prepare for the upcoming election, which needs to happen by late October this year. He told reporters outside his home in Ottawa, It’s time for a reset, and noted that he has put Parliament on hold until March 24.
He believes that stepping aside from his leadership will help ease tensions within the party. This announcement comes at a time when Parliament is stuck in gridlock, with many lawmakers concerned about how poorly Trudeau’s party is faring in pre-election polls.
With all this going on, Canada finds itself in a bit of political turmoil just as Donald Trump’s administration prepares to implement tough tariffs on Canadian goods. So what could be next?
when can we expect to see a new Prime Minister in office?
In Canada, the way party leaders are chosen is quite different from places like India and Australia. Over there, lawmakers can pick their leaders and even replace them in a snap. But here, we have these big leadership conventions that can take ages to set up. So until they find a new leader, Mr. Trudeau will continue to serve as both the prime minister and the head of the Liberal Party.
How much time do you think it’ll take to choose a new Prime Minister?
Mr. Trudeau mentioned that he’s asked the party to kick off the process of finding a new leader. Sachit Mehra, the Liberal president, said he plans to convene a meeting with the national board this week to get things rolling, but didn’t share any specifics.
The thing is, it usually takes the Liberals quite a while to choose a new leader, which might mean they’ll still be under Mr. Trudeau’s leadership when it comes time for the next election.
For instance, when Trudeau became leader back in April 2013, the whole process took five months; and in 2006, it dragged on for nearly eight months.
Given how poorly the polls are looking for him right now, though, it seems likely that the Liberal Party will opt for a quicker selection process so they can have someone new in charge sooner rather than later. Even if polling suggests they’re set to lose regardless of who leads them—having someone else at the helm might soften that blow a bit.
Who could take over from Justin Trudeau?
The thought of a tough election loss might scare off some candidates, especially if the party ends up in a really bad spot. Still, there are a few names in the mix who might throw their hats into the ring.
You’ve got Innovation Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne, Transport Minister Anita Anand, Foreign Minister Melanie Joly, and former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland all potentially looking to run.
And let’s not forget Mark Carney—he’s the former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England and could join the race too. But here’s the kicker: tradition says that since he’s now Chair at Brookfield Asset Management, he’d need to win a seat in parliament first if he wants to take on that party leadership role.
When’s the next election coming up?
When he announced his resignation, Mr. Trudeau mentioned that instead of parliament starting back up on January 27, it would actually be prorogued, meaning it’s suspended until March 24.
This shift means that the opposition parties—who were ready to propose non-confidence motions to try and topple his minority government right after January 27—will now have to hold off until sometime in May.
That’s because the government sets the agenda for most sessions. So, unless all the opposition parties band together and vote against the Liberals, it looks like a new election won’t happen until at least May.
Once parliament does get back to work, the government will need to lay out its plans for the new session in what’s called the Speech from the Throne. But here’s the kicker: they don’t have to make that speech subject to a no-confidence vote.
Parliament is expected to take its summer break by June 20 at the latest, and if the Liberals are still in power by then, we can expect an election at the end of October as planned.
Is it possible to kick Liberals out of office before the election?
Originally, the House of Commons was supposed to vote on spending measures in late March, which would lead to a confidence vote. But now, it’s uncertain if that vote will still happen then or if the opposition parties will actually go ahead and try to topple the Liberals, whether Trudeau is still at the helm or someone new takes over.
The Conservatives, who are likely to win the next election, along with the smaller left-leaning New Democratic Party, have both expressed their desire to oust Trudeau through a no-confidence motion they’ve put forward.
There’s also a chance that the Liberals could face defeat over their annual budget, expected to be revealed in April. The first vote on that budget legislation would be seen as a confidence issue too, but the government has some leeway regarding when it can occur.
Are there any alternative methods that could lead to Justin Trudeau being removed from his position?
In Canada, the top constitutional authority is Governor General Mary Simon, who acts as the personal representative for King Charles of Britain, our head of state. Technically, she has the power to dismiss Trudeau, but honestly, that’s extremely unlikely to occur.
Philippe Lagasse, a constitutional expert and professor at Carleton University in Ottawa, mentioned that the governor general isn’t likely to remove a prime minister who continues to have the support of the House of Commons.